Probability of a recession hitting the US within 12 months reaches 100%, warn economists

10/18/2022 / By Arsenio Toledo

A new model projection from Bloomberg Economics predicts a recession in the next 12 months with 100 percent certainty, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of next month’s midterm elections.

The latest recession probability models were done by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger. They believe there is a 100 percent chance of an economic downturn by Oct. 2023, up from 65 percent for the comparable period in the previous update.

This represents a massive jump from other forecasts by other economists. In June, Statista’s research department reported that the probability of a recession by Aug. 2023 was only 5.93 percent. By July, this probability surged to 17.63 percent and by August it jumped again to 25.15 percent. (Related: THIS IS SERIOUS: Financial wizard Jamie Dimon predicts major recession coming to US thanks to worsening economy under Biden.)

Other economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the probability of a recession over the next 12 months at around 60 percent, a moderate increase from the 50 percent probability forecasted a month ago.

Tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of the Federal Reserve remaining hawkish and proceeding with interest rate hikes are further increasing the probability of a massive economic contraction that could mean trillions of dollars worth of losses and millions of Americans losing jobs.

CEOs have no faith in Biden, believe recession is coming

These forecasts are a stark contrast to Biden’s repeated statements claiming that the American economy is not in trouble. On Saturday, Oct. 15, during a campaign stop in Portland Oregon, the president even claimed that the economy “is strong as hell.”

But the Measure of CEO Confidence survey released by The Conference Board in collaboration with The Business Council revealed that America’s business leaders do not agree with Biden.

In the recent survey, a full 98 percent of CEOs surveyed are preparing for a recession to come in the next 12 to 18 months, and 99 percent expect one to hit the European Union.

“CEOs are now preparing for near-inevitable recessions in both the U.S. and Europe,” said Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council, in a statement.

What the CEOs disagree on is the length and impact of the recession. Eighty-five percent of the CEOs surveyed believe the recession will be “brief and shallow,” and the rest expect it to be “deep” with “material global spillover.”

“Everybody likes to forecast recessions, and there will be one. It’s just a question of when and, frankly, how hard,” said Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund company Citadel LLC.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, offered a bleaker timeline. He believes the recession will hit in the next six to nine months. He noted that it is very likely that the Fed will keep raising interest rates. This, combined with other global economic forces, will plunge the American economy.

Worse yet, Nouriel Roubini, an economist, professor and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, believes a severe recession will hit the U.S. before the end of the year and last through all of 2023.

“It’s not going to be a short and shallow recession,” said Roubini. “It’s going to be severe, long and ugly.”

In the joint survey by The Conference Board and The Business Council, 74 percent of CEOs said they expect economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, regardless of whether or not there is a recession.

“CEO confidence sunk further to start Q4 and is at its lowest level since the Great Recession,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist of The Conference Board, in a written statement.

Dimon’s only advice for Americans preparing for an economic downturn during the holidays is to “be prepared.”

Read more stories about the American economy at Bubble.news.

Watch this episode of the “Health Ranger Report” as Health Ranger Mike Adams talks about Biden’s economy turning into a dumpster fire.

This video is from the Health Ranger Report channel on Brighteon.com.